Arecor is a revenue-generating clinical-stage drug developer. Its proprietary Arestat formulation platforms are the basis of an in-house and partnered pipeline of enhanced products with lower development risks and less onerous regulatory approvals.
Arecor is successfully progressing its in-house pipeline, with both key diabetes programmes, AT247 (ultra-rapid insulin) and AT278 (ultra-concentrated ultra-rapid insulin), undergoing Phase I studies. Recent AT278 data demonstrated the promising profile, which is especially suited to high-dose insulin users and will be further explored in an upcoming Phase I study in Type II diabetes. AT247 data from a US insulin pump trial is expected shortly and will similarly guide its likely role in the nascent, and commercially important, insulin pump market. The recent acquisition of Tetris Pharma, supported by a £6m equity raise in August, brings near-term revenues and longer-term operational flexibility. Updating our rNPV model for H122 results and the acquisition generates an Arecor valuation of £177m, or 581p per share.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| AREC | AIM London |
Avacta is a UK-based biopharmaceutical company developing novel cancer immunotherapeutics and high performing diagnostics, based on its two proprietary platforms: Affimer and pre|CISION.
Avacta employs its two proprietary platforms, Affimer and pre|CISION, to create novel diagnostic and therapeutic products. The COVID-19 pandemic thrust its ability to develop an Affimer-based LFT (lateral flow test) diagnostic into the spotlight, even though we believe greater long-term value lies within Therapeutics applications. While the COVID-19 opportunity didn’t pan out as many investors expected, it did showcase Avacta’s diagnostics capabilities and Affimers’ potential. Lead therapeutic asset AVA6000 is progressing through Phase I and should confirm the clinical utility of pre|CISION. A wider portfolio of products is being readied to exploit the platform’s tumour specific activation, which should result in greater potency and less toxicity. News flow over the next 18-24 months provides multiple value-inflection points. Our valuation is £557m, equivalent to 219p/share, from £710m, 280p/share previously.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| AVCT | AIM London |
ANGLE is a specialist diagnostics company. Its proprietary Parsortix technology can capture and harvest very rare cells, including CTCs (circulating tumour cells), from a blood sample. The FDA approval for its clinical use to guide precision cancer care will open up further multiple commercial opportunities.
ANGLE’s updates reveal dialogue with FDA for Parsortix’s approval for use in mBC (metastatic breast cancer) is continuing and constructive, first submissions for accreditation of UK and US clinical laboratories have been made, but development of the ovarian cancer LDT (Laboratory Developed Test) has been hampered by a delay to data read out from a key study (due to third-party supply issues) to H122. A new study comparing CTC harvest and downstream analysis against biopsies in mBC shows good correlation and indicates Parsortix use could materially benefit clinical diagnoses and treatments. The longer wait for FDA approval and first LDT roll-out prompt us to revisit our forecasts and valuation models. Our new valuation of £506m ($658m), or 215p/share compares to £581m ($755m), 248p/share previously.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| AGL | AIM London |
Allergy Therapeutics specialises in the diagnosis and treatment of allergy. The existing European business generates c £80m annual sales. Near-term R&D efforts are focussed on the Pollinex Quattro platform, whilst in the medium-term the VLP platform is highly promising.
Allergy Therapeutics has quantified the potential near-term revenue impact from the voluntary UK manufacturing pause. Whilst this is only expected to last around six weeks, FY23 revenues are expected to be 13-18% below current consensus expectations. This is unfortunately due to the interruption occurring during the peak production period, which is undoubtedly disappointing given management guidance of a return to near double-digit growth in FY23. This setback puts increasing pressure on the pipeline to deliver next year, with important readouts expected for both VLP Peanut and Grass MATA MPL; both are expected to initiate key clinical trials this year. Our valuation is lowered to £260.8m, or 38.4p/share, with the commercial business DCF reduced to £45.9m or 6.8p/share and our pipeline NPV unchanged.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| AGY | AIM London |
Redx Pharma specialises in the discovery and development of small molecule therapeutics, with an emphasis on oncology and fibrotic disease. It aims to initially progress them through proof-of-concept studies, before evaluating options for further development and value creation. Existing earlier-stage collaboration partners include AstraZeneca and Jazz Pharmaceuticals.
Redx Pharma continues to deliver, with H122 results highlighting broad progress across the pipeline. The lead assets, RXC004, a porcupine inhibitor for oncology, and RXC007, a ROCK2 inhibitor for fibrosis, are advancing through Phase II and Phase I trials respectively, with further value inflection expected during 2022-23. Milestone receipts from AstraZeneca and Jazz Pharmaceuticals are tangible evidence of further progress with partnered programmes. Selection of RXC008, a GI targeted ROCK inhibitor as the next development candidate demonstrates earlier stage development is similarly bearing fruit. Our new rNPV-based valuation, updated to reflect H122 results and the May £34.3m (gross) equity raise, is £458m (vs £434m), or 138p/share.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| REDX | AIM London |
Futura Medical is a R&D-driven small pharma with a novel proprietary transdermal delivery system, DermaSys, and a lead programme, MED3000, in development for erectile dysfunction.
During 2022 Futura Medical successfully delivered on several key MED3000 related events, including the highly positive FM71 longer-term clinical data, which are needed to enter the US market and importantly reinforced MED3000’s differentiated and rapid onset of action. In addition, a number of commercial deals were executed, notably the European and UK deal with Cooper Consumer Health. The next steps are EU launches (due to start during H123), FDA marketing clearance (potentially by end Q123), and securing a US partner. These should be the final elements in converting MED3000 into a revenue generating OTC product for ED, transforming Futura Medical’s prospects. Pending visibility on both US and European launches, our updated model conservatively does not include any near-term MED3000 related revenues. Our Futura Medical valuation is now £270m, equivalent to 94p per share.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| FUM | AIM London |
Scancell is a clinical-stage immuno-oncology specialist that is developing two innovative and flexible therapeutic vaccine platforms. ImmunoBody and Moditope induce high avidity cytotoxic CD8 and CD4 responses, respectively, with the potential to treat various cancers.
Scancell is an oncology-focussed clinical stage immunology specialist. It has two promising vaccine platforms, ImmunoBody and Moditope, and two antibody technologies, GlyMab (anti-glycans) and AvidiMab, with the potential to treat many solid cancers, either as monotherapy or in combination. Modi-1, the first Moditope programme, has started Phase I/II trials targeting hard-to-treat tumours. The lead ImmunoBody programme, SCIB1, is in a Phase II combination study in metastatic melanoma. The broad acting glycan antibodies are at earlier stages of development and will likely be partnered for clinical studies. AvidiMab technology will be increasingly employed to enhance avidity and potency, with the Phase I COVIDITY COVID-19 vaccine programme the most high-profile beneficiary. Our Scancell valuation, using a risk adjusted DCF model, is £237.4m, or 29.1p per share.
| Symbol | Primary exchanges |
| SCLP | AIM London |
HUTCHMED, a Hong Kong-based biopharmaceutical company, is on track to become a global leader in the discovery, development, and commercialisation of innovative, highly selective oral tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapies for oncology and immunological indications.
HUTCHMED has ambitious near- and medium-term growth plans, centred on its novel oncology products, to initially create a sizeable commercial organisation addressing Greater China whilst also building the appropriate infrastructure to address key global markets. The first product wave – Elunate (fruquintinib), Orpathys (savolitinib) and Sulanda (surufatinib) – are expected to post FY22 revenues of $160-$190m in China. The second and third waves of innovative programmes are progressing through development, with highly encouraging clinical profiles. This note details the status and relative importance of the key programmes and complements our September 2022 Outlook. Our valuation is $5.51bn/ £4.59bn/ HK$43.08bn, equivalent to $31.89/ADS or 531p/HK$49.83 per share.
| Symbol | Exchanges |
| HCM/0013 | NASDAQ/AIM London/SEHK |
MaxCyte has a patented flow electroporation platform, which can transfect a wide array of cells. It generates revenues from the sale and lease of equipment, disposables and licence fees from an impressive client list. Key programmes with several clients are gaining greater visibility and approaching material value-inflection points. These will trigger a stream of milestone fees.
MaxCyte’s H122 total revenue of $21.2m grew 56% year-on-year, with core Cell Therapy and Drug Discovery revenues up 46.5% to $19.2m, prompting management to increase FY22 guidance to c 30% core business revenue growth. Guidance for the inherently lumpier programme-related revenues from Strategic Platform Licences (SPLs) remains at c $4m for FY22. First regulatory filings for the most advanced SPL asset, CRISPR Therapeutics’ exa-cel (CTX001) should occur in Q422, meaning a first approval decision could come as early as 2023. With the prospect of future commercial launches, a growing number of SPL partners (now 17) and clinical progress across the SPL stable, MaxCyte is investing in people, processes, products, and infrastructure to support this, to further consolidate its leading position in non-viral cell delivery and engineering, and to expand into new markets. Our updated valuation is £980m ($1.27bn) or 964p/$12.53 per share.
| Symbol | Primary exchange |
| MXCT/MXCT.L | NASDAQ/AIM London |