Investment Perspective

Futura Medical is approaching a key point as the first of the regulatory filings for its novel erectile dysfunction (ED) treatment, MED3000, is expected within the next few months. MED3000 is a fast-acting gel that has proven clinical efficacy, a fast onset of action, and an attractive commercial profile. The ED market opportunity is sizeable, especially once MED3000 becomes widely available over the counter (OTC). Optimally addressing the various elements of the demographic segments and needs of the different geographies will, in our view, require careful selection of commercial partners. We expect the partnering discussions to start in earnest once the status of the regulatory approvals is known. Our DCF-based model, using conservative assumptions, values Futura Medical at £153.8m, equivalent to 60.9p a share.

Investment Perspective

Scancell has two promising vaccine platforms, ImmunoBody and Moditope, that have the potential to treat many cancers, either as monotherapy or in combination with checkpoint inhibitors. The leading ImmunoBody programme, SCIB1, is in a combination Phase II study for metastatic melanoma. Moditope is also expected to enter the clinic, with a Modi-1 Phase I/II trial expected to start during 2021. A third platform, AvidiMab, antibodies that target glycans, can be highly specific to tumour cells and has generated significant industry interest. The expertise in inducing potent immune responses is now also being directed towards a potential COVID-19 vaccine. We value Scancell, using a risk adjusted DCF model, at £72.4m, or 15.6p a share.

Investment Perspective

2020 is set to be the breakthrough year as Hutchison China MediTech (‘Chi-Med’) consolidates its position as a world-class innovator and developer of best-/first-in-class small molecule tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs). The company’s phenomenal journey since inception twenty years ago means it is well-positioned to capitalise on its recent progress. Chi-Med has exploited its early-mover advantage in China to build a broad and innovative TKI pipeline and a credible domestic commercial presence, which provides the foundation for the future commercialisation of its China Oncology pipeline. It is preparing for a first in-house China launch in H220 and filing of two further China NDAs in 2020. Alongside, Chi-Med has established a US clinical and regulatory presence which is supporting imminent Global Innovation pivotal trial initiations and should clarify timing of first US/EU filing in the near-term. Ahead of these important catalysts, we value Chi-Med at £5.08/share or $32.99/ADS.

Investment Perspective

Mereo BioPharma is developing a portfolio of rare disease therapies that have been sourced from larger drug players. An appropriate selection of these will be retained for self-commercialisation. The longer-term goal is the creation of a self-sustaining speciality pharmaceutical company that addresses orphan and rare diseases. In the near term these clinical assets are progressed to value-inflection points and then partners are sought. The partnering deals will likely be structured to provide funding for the continuing development operations, yet retaining a sizeable element of longer-term upside. The company has a cash runway extending to mid-2020. We have updated our rNPV model to 412p/share or $20.60/ADS (fully diluted).

Investment Perspective

Nexstim’s €2.3m rights issue was materially oversubscribed, with bids for 273% of the offered shares. A total of 376.7m new shares, at €0.006, will be issued. The new funds provide the resources to continue to support its existing NBS and NBT businesses, and, importantly, invest in studies to explore attractive opportunities in severe depression and chronic neuropathic pain. Nexstim is carving out a promising, and sizeable, niche in depression; where the accuracy, reliability, and reproducibility of its navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) technology is clearly differentiated versus the competition. Our updated Nexstim valuation, reflecting the fund raise and share dilution, is €32.2m (€0.07/share).

Investment Perspective

SEK 378m in (gross) proceeds from Bonesupport’s directed share issue will help it scale up and maintain necessary investment to drive CERAMENT’s growth trajectory. Bonesupport’s commercially driven strategy is delivering, with investment in new US sales territories converting into enhanced sales and new distributors now in place in key European countries. However, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic starting to be felt in Q120, guidance of 40+% annual revenue growth from 2020 will be off a lower base. H120 sales will be negatively impacted by postponed elective surgeries due to reprioritisation of healthcare resources; H220 is currently difficult to assess. Around 70% of proceeds will be directed into commercial activities, principally supporting CERAMENT G US launch (first approval could now occur in late 2020 following the De Novo FDA filing for chronic osteomyelitis in April) and in optimising infrastructure in Europe. We update our valuation to SEK41.5/share, or SEK2.62bn.

Investment Perspective

The potential of cell therapies is starting to become clear, and MaxCyte’s technology lies at the heart of many of these next-generation treatments. The pivotal role its platform plays is shown by ten major partnership agreements formed with leading cell therapy players over the past 18 months. These can earn pre-commercialisation milestones in excess of $800m, transforming MaxCyte’s medium- and longer-term revenues as the underlying programmes advance through clinical development. CARMA, MaxCyte’s proprietary cell therapy platform, is nearing a key inflection point, with Phase I data from its lead asset due in 2020. Management is targeting CARMA to be self-financing by 2021. We raise our valuation to £260m (340p/share), from £195m and 341p, with the core business alone valued at £158m (206p/share).

Investment Perspective

Kind Consumer is poised to introduce Voke, a novel nicotine delivery device, into the UK market. Voke closely mimics the key aspects of cigarette smoking, but without tobacco’s harmful effects. The notable recent shifts in consumer acceptance of such novel devices suggest market adoption will be positive. The development, regulatory, and production processes have now been completed. Management is seeking funds to execute its commercialisation plans. Our rDCF valuation, using modest assumptions for the UK only, yields a value of £154m.

Investment Perspective

BerGenBio is focused on developing bemcentinib in oncology, but an unexpected fast route-to-market has presented. Bemcentinib was selected for the UK Government-funded Phase II ACCORD-2 trial for the treatment of COVID-19. Data from the study is expected in Q3/Q4 20 and bemcentinib could advance rapidly into a Phase III study by end-2020. BerGenBio is planning a pivotal Phase IIb/III study in NSCLC with bemcentinib combined with pembrolizumab, and randomised studies in AML. The cash position of c NOK850m is strong, after raising NOK500m (gross) in May, so it now has the financial resources to advance bemcentinib and the rest of its pipeline appropriately. We raise our valuation of BerGenBio to NOK4.43bn (NOK50.3/share).