Consistent solid delivery
Update | 19 September 2019
Continued expansion of MaxCyte’s base of licenced cell therapy programmes provides an increasingly solid foundation to support future revenue growth. MaxCyte has delivered four-year revenue CAGR of 24%; H119 revenues were up 21%. With an industry increasingly transitioning towards non-viral transfection methods for cell and gene therapies, MaxCyte’s enabling technologies are well positioned. The company is benefitting from this trend with an increasing number of licenced cell therapy programmes (now 80+), as well as expansion in the number of clinical (45+) and commercial (5) licences. The latter represent $450m in aggregate pre-commercial milestones. Coupled to this, MaxCyte is advancing the development of its proprietary CARMA platform and is exploring independent sources of investment to fully exploit this opportunity. We value MaxCyte at £195m or 341p per share.
|Year-end: December 31||2017||2018||2019E||2020E|
|Adj. PBT (US$m)||(9.9)||(8.9)||(16.6)||(16.2)|
|Net Income (US$m)||(9.9)||(8.9)||(16.6)||(16.2)|
19 September 2019
|Shares in issue||57.3m|
|12 month range||110.0-244.0p|
MaxCyte uses its patented flow electroporation platform to transfect a wide array of cells. Revenues arise from sale and lease of equipment, disposables and licence fees; with an impressive client list. Additionally, a novel mRNA mediated CAR technology, known as CARMA, is being explored in various cancers, including solid tumours.
Mick Cooper PhD
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042
+44 (0) 20 3637 5041
MaxCyte has delivered another six-month period of strong sales growth, with H119 revenues up 21% to $8.4m, and with gross margin of 88% maintained at pharmaceutical company-like levels. Consistency is a key theme for MaxCyte, both financially and with respect to its proprietary flow electroporation technology which delivers highly efficient, reproducible, and scalable non-viral cell engineering. The consistency and broad applicability of this technology has given the company a leading position in non-viral cell modification, and with the rapid growth of the number of cell and gene therapies in development, MaxCyte is approaching a revenue inflection point. Ahead of this, we reiterate our 341p/share valuation.
Less than 10% of MaxCyte’s current revenues are derived from milestones, but we expect both the proportion and magnitude of this revenue stream to increase over the coming years as the company’s stable of cell therapy licences matures. At H119 results, management reported a further rise in the number of cell therapy programmes covered by licences (Exhibit 1), including potentially lucrative clinical (up from >35 to >45) and commercial (five, including two additions so far in 2019) licences. These latter licences represent over $450m in aggregate pre-commercial milestones which would be triggered as these programmes progress through development and the regulatory process. However, it should be noted that not all programmes covered by a commercial licence will enter clinical development.
Additionally, as is typical with most licensing agreements, the deals are backend-weighted with the most significant potential payments to MaxCyte dependent on the programme becoming an approved and marketable product. We note that the >$450m milestone potential does not include MaxCyte’s share of post approval product revenues (broad instrument roll-out, per patient consumable sales plus royalties and/or sales milestones).
MaxCyte estimates that the NPV of each programme with a commercial licence is on average c $10m at the start of clinical development, after considering development and commercial risks.
Four of the five commercial partners have been publicly disclosed: CRISPR Therapeutics, Casebia, Kite Pharmaceuticals (Gilead), and Precision Biosciences. Further detail on these deals can be found in our July 2019 Update; but we highlight here that they cover a range of genome editing approaches, as well as stem cell therapies, and allogeneic cell therapy programmes, demonstrating the versatility of MaxCyte’s technology.
MaxCyte announced that it is exploring independent sources of funding for CARMA, its proprietary autologous mRNA-based CAR therapy platform. This business line now operates as a standalone, with a different risk/reward profile to MaxCyte’s life sciences business. Investment is required to advance the development of the CARMA pipeline (Exhibit 2), and data from the lead programme MCY-M11 should support MaxCyte’s partnering efforts.
MCY-M11 entered the clinic in H218; it is being evaluated in an open-label Phase I ovarian cancer and mesothelioma study, which has a dose escalation 3+3 design with intraperitoneal dosing. The trial is expected to complete by mid-2020. Nevertheless, two key milestones for CARMA have already been achieved with the validation of the one-day manufacturing process for MCY-M11 one day (vs 1-2 weeks for current CAR-T approaches), and the fact that no dose-limiting toxicities or safety concerns were observed in first patient cohort.
The second dose cohort started enrolling in May, and preliminary safety (and possibly efficacy) data is expected to be announced at various upcoming conferences, potentially including ESMO and/or SITC.
We have updated our financial estimates following the report of H119 results. The key changes (Exhibit 3) relate to increased CARMA spend with progression of the MCY-M11 Phase I, and additional investment into R&D and sales.
Trinity Delta Research Limited (“TDRL”; firm reference number: 725161), which trades as Trinity Delta, is an appointed representative of Equity Development Limited (“ED”). The contents of this report, which has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of TDRL, have been reviewed, but not independently verified, by ED which is authorised and regulated by the FCA, and whose reference number is 185325.
ED is acting for TDRL and not for any other person and will not be responsible for providing the protections provided to clients of TDRL nor for advising any other person in connection with the contents of this report and, except to the extent required by applicable law, including the rules of the FCA, owes no duty of care to any other such person. No reliance may be placed on ED for advice or recommendations with respect to the contents of this report and, to the extent it may do so under applicable law, ED makes no representation or warranty to the persons reading this report with regards to the information contained in it.
In the preparation of this report TDRL has used publically available sources and taken reasonable efforts to ensure that the facts stated herein are clear, fair and not misleading, but make no guarantee or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein, nor to provide updates should fresh information become available or opinions change.
Any person who is not a relevant person under section of Section 21(2) of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Research on its client companies produced by TDRL is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves (‘issuer financed research’) and as such is not deemed to be independent, as defined by the FCA, but is ‘objective’ in that the authors are stating their own opinions. The report should be considered a marketing communication for purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. TDRL does not hold any positions in any of the companies mentioned in the report, although directors, employees or consultants of TDRL may hold positions in the companies mentioned. TDRL does impose restrictions on personal dealings. TDRL might also provide services to companies mentioned or solicit business from them.
This report is being provided to relevant persons to provide background information about the subject matter of the note. This document does not constitute, nor form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or purchase of (or solicitation of, or invitation to make any offer to buy or sell) any Securities (which may rise and fall in value). Nor shall it, or any part of it, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information that we provide is not intended to be, and should not in any manner whatsoever be, construed as personalised advice. Self-certification by investors can be completed free of charge at www.fisma.org. TDRL, its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, and ED will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any use of this document, to the maximum extent that the law permits.
Copyright 2019 Trinity Delta Research Limited. All rights reserved.