Allergy Therapeutics

FY21 pre-close update ahead of market expectations

Lighthouse | 24 June 2021

Share this note

  • Allergy Therapeutics’ pre-close trading update indicates FY21 results (to 30 June 2021) will be ahead of market expectations. Revenues are boosted by the strong Euro rate (most sales are Euro-denominated), while expenses are lower due to COVID-19 restrictions on travel and scientific conference attendance (with some carry over into FY22). Additionally, some R&D investment originally expected to be incurred during FY21 will now be phased into FY22. This suggests that Allergy Therapeutics’ end-June 2021 cash position will be stronger than our forecast of £30m.
  • Looking to FY22, the revenue growth (at CER) is expected to be at “low single digit levels”. This reflects a continuing impact of COVID-19 on patient consultations in certain markets, as well as the planned de-emphasising of various older, non-core product lines as the focus remains on the newer SCIT (short-course subcutaneous therapy) and novel allergy treatments. Underlying expenses are expected to return to pre-COVID levels, which coupled with continuing investment in R&D, suggests a lower level of reported earnings.
  • The next 12-24 months represent an important period for Allergy Therapeutics. Top-line data from the G309 exploratory field study of Grass MATA MPL is anticipated in calendar H221, which will inform design of the G306 pivotal grass trial (scheduled to start autumn 2022). The ongoing P001 ex vivo peanut allergy biomarker study should read out in the summer, with potential for IND submission by year-end. Management confirms it expects to be able to fully fund the pivotal Phase III Grass MATA MPL programme and the Phase I VLP peanut study with existing resources supplemented by a small amount of additional debt.
  • The company intends to issue its post year end trading update on 14 July 2021, with preliminary FY21 results due to be announced on 23 September 2021.

Trinity Delta view: Allergy Therapeutics’ FY21 pre-close trading statement has provided an update on the commercial impacts of COVID-19. Due to seasonality H1 typically represents 60-70% of FY revenues, and the robust performance in H121 appears to have continued into H221, although lower spend will have flattered both FY21 operating profit pre-R&D and earnings. However, there are knock on effects into FY22 due to a combination of the reversion of SG&A spend to prior levels, phasing of R&D investment, and a more streamlined commercial portfolio. On the R&D side, we draw attention to a number of important catalysts for key pipeline programmes during calendar H221. We intend to review our forecasts when additional information is available, and continue to value Allergy Therapeutics at £344.5m (53.8p/share), based on sum of the parts including a DCF of the commercial operations (£89.7m or 14.0p/share), an rNPV of the R&D pipeline (£210.3m, or 32.8p/share), and net cash.


24 June 2021

Market Cap£157.9m
Primary exchangeAIM
Company CodeAGY
Corporate clientYes

Company description

Allergy Therapeutics specialises in the diagnosis and treatment of allergy. The existing European business generates c £80m annual sales. Near-term R&D efforts are focussed on the Pollinex Quattro platform, whilst in the medium-term the VLP platform is highly promising.


Lala Gregorek
+44 (0) 20 3637 5043

Franc Gregori
+44 (0) 20 3637 5041


Trinity Delta Research Limited (“TDRL”; firm reference number: 725161), which trades as Trinity Delta, is an appointed representative of Equity Development Limited (“ED”). The contents of this report, which has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of TDRL, have been reviewed, but not independently verified, by ED which is authorised and regulated by the FCA, and whose reference number is 185325.

ED is acting for TDRL and not for any other person and will not be responsible for providing the protections provided to clients of TDRL nor for advising any other person in connection with the contents of this report and, except to the extent required by applicable law, including the rules of the FCA, owes no duty of care to any other such person. No reliance may be placed on ED for advice or recommendations with respect to the contents of this report and, to the extent it may do so under applicable law, ED makes no representation or warranty to the persons reading this report with regards to the information contained in it.

In the preparation of this report TDRL has used publicly available sources and taken reasonable efforts to ensure that the facts stated herein are clear, fair and not misleading, but make no guarantee or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein, nor to provide updates should fresh information become available or opinions change.

Any person who is not a relevant person under section of Section 21(2) of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Research on its client companies produced by TDRL is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves (‘issuer financed research’) and as such is not deemed to be independent, as defined by the FCA, but is ‘objective’ in that the authors are stating their own opinions. The report should be considered a marketing communication for purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. TDRL does not hold any positions in any of the companies mentioned in the report, although directors, employees or consultants of TDRL may hold positions in the companies mentioned. TDRL does impose restrictions on personal dealings. TDRL might also provide services to companies mentioned or solicit business from them.

This report is being provided to relevant persons to provide background information about the subject matter of the note. This document does not constitute, nor form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or purchase of (or solicitation of, or invitation to make any offer to buy or sell) any Securities (which may rise and fall in value). Nor shall it, or any part of it, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information that we provide is not intended to be, and should not in any manner whatsoever be, construed as personalised advice. Self-certification by investors can be completed free of charge at TDRL, its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, and ED will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any use of this document, to the maximum extent that the law permits.

Copyright 2021 Trinity Delta Research Limited. All rights reserved.