HUTCHMED

H125: Growth prospects remain intact

Lighthouse | 7 August 2025

Share this note

  • Oncology/Immunology in-market H125 product sales decreased to $234m (H124: $243m); Fruzaqla grew +25% CER to $163m (H124: $131m) driven by global launches, whilst Elunate, Sulanda and Orpathys in China all faced increasing competition, lowering in-market sales to $72m (H124: $113m). Consolidated revenues consequently fell to $144m (H124: $169m), including lower product-related revenues of $99m (H124: $128m), and upfront, milestones, R&D services, and other revenue of $44m (H124: $41m).
  • Total H125 revenues were $278m (H124: $306m), with Other Ventures broadly flat at $134m (H124: $137m). R&D declined by 24% to $72m (H124: $95m) as studies completed; SG&A also declined to $42m (H124: $58m). Other Items were $42m (H124: $53m) owing to the lower share of SHPL earnings. Net income was $455m (H124: $26m) boosted by a post-tax gain of $416m from the SHPL divestment, and end-H125 cash was $1.36bn (end-FY24: $836m), also benefitting from SHPL proceeds.
  • HUTCHMED’s Oncology/Immunology revenue guidance for 2025 has been lowered to $270m-$350m (from $350m-$450m), mainly due to milestone phasing. We believe this relates to Fruzaqla, where the current run rate suggests in-market FY25 sales of c $326m, which are unlikely to trigger a sales milestone this year, in our view. Recall that the first sales milestone of $20m was achieved on revenues >$200m; we assume the next milestone is on sales >$400m (which we forecast in FY26e). Note our last published FY25 Oncology/Immunology revenue forecast of $323m is within the new lowered guidance, as we had adjusted our forecast to better reflect evolving events (see our May 2025 Outlook for details).
  • Whilst H125 China growth has been impacted by competition, management expects this to improve in H225 from: (1) Elunate launch in 2L EMC; growth has already recently returned and it is also now under review in 2L RCC (data at ESMO 2025); (2) July Orpathys approval in combo with Tagrisso for EGFR refractory NSCLC with MET amplification (July 2025 Lighthouse), a much larger indication; per AstraZeneca global SAFFRON data in this indication are expected H126; and (3) mainland China July Tazverik launch in 3L follicular lymphoma. Ex-China, increasing uptake of Fruzaqla is expected to drive sales.

Trinity Delta view: The China sales decline, plus lowering of revenue guidance are undoubtedly disappointing. However, China growth is already improving and management is confident this will continue during H225, driven by new indications. In particular, the recent Orpathys/Tagrisso approval based on SACHI data represent a much larger indication; importantly, data from the global SAFFRON trial are expected H126. Furthermore, as the sizeable ATTC opportunities become clearer, these could offer significant upside potential; additional information is expected at the EORTC conference in October and clinical trials for the first ATTC candidate should start by end-2025. Data from surufatinib in pancreatic cancer, expected late-2025, remain a wild-card to which we assign limited value. Our most recent HUTCHMED valuation is $5.86bn/ £4.69bn/HK$45.74bn, or $33.64/ADS and 538p/HK$52.48 per share.

Lighthouse

7 August 2025

Price (US ADS)
(UK share)
(SEHK share)
$16.28
243.0p
HK$28.02
Market Cap
 
$2.84bn
£2.12bn
HK$24.44bn
ExchangesNASDAQ
AIM London
SEHK
SectorHealthcare
Company CodesHCM
HCM.L
0013.HK
Corporate clientYes

Company description

HUTCHMED is a Hong Kong headquartered biopharma focused on discovering, developing and commercialising innovative targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases for the China and global markets.

Analysts

Lala Gregorek
lgregorek@trinitydelta.org
+44 (0) 20 3637 5043

Philippa Gardner
pgardner@trinitydelta.org
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042

Disclaimer

Trinity Delta Research Limited (“TDRL”; firm reference number: 725161), which trades as Trinity Delta, is an appointed representative of Equity Development Limited (“ED”). The contents of this report, which has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of TDRL, have been reviewed, but not independently verified, by ED which is authorised and regulated by the FCA, and whose reference number is 185325.

ED is acting for TDRL and not for any other person and will not be responsible for providing the protections provided to clients of TDRL nor for advising any other person in connection with the contents of this report and, except to the extent required by applicable law, including the rules of the FCA, owes no duty of care to any other such person. No reliance may be placed on ED for advice or recommendations with respect to the contents of this report and, to the extent it may do so under applicable law, ED makes no representation or warranty to the persons reading this report with regards to the information contained in it.

In the preparation of this report TDRL has used publicly available sources and taken reasonable efforts to ensure that the facts stated herein are clear, fair and not misleading, but make no guarantee or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein, nor to provide updates should fresh information become available or opinions change.

Any person who is not a relevant person under section of Section 21(2) of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Research on its client companies produced by TDRL is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves (‘issuer financed research’) and as such is not deemed to be independent, as defined by the FCA, but is ‘objective’ in that the authors are stating their own opinions. The report should be considered a marketing communication for purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. TDRL does not hold any positions in any of the companies mentioned in the report, although directors, employees or consultants of TDRL may hold positions in the companies mentioned. TDRL does impose restrictions on personal dealings. TDRL might also provide services to companies mentioned or solicit business from them.

This report is being provided to relevant persons to provide background information about the subject matter of the note. This document does not constitute, nor form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or purchase of (or solicitation of, or invitation to make any offer to buy or sell) any Securities (which may rise and fall in value). Nor shall it, or any part of it, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information that we provide is not intended to be, and should not in any manner whatsoever be, construed as personalised advice. Self-certification by investors can be completed free of charge at www.fisma.org. TDRL, its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, and ED will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any use of this document, to the maximum extent that the law permits.

Copyright 2025 Trinity Delta Research Limited. All rights reserved.