Oxford BioDynamics

Seeking deals to enhance EpiSwitch revenue potential

Update | 6 March 2025

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There is a near-term focus on partnerships, collaborations and licensing deals to maximise the revenue potential of Oxford BioDynamics’ portfolio of innovative and clinically robust tests. We believe the market opportunities for CiRT, PSE, and the portfolio of tests remain intact and sizeable, but successful uptake requires continued significant commercial investment and/or partners, in our view. New management is considering all options to crystallise value from these diagnostic tests and the in-depth knowledge of 3-dimensional genomics that underpin the proprietary EpiSwitch platform. Our reinstated DCF-based valuation is now £159m ($199m), or 8p/share, which assumes OBD can deliver on the revenue and value potential that exists.

Year-end: September 30202320242025E2026E
Revenues (£m)0.5 0.6 1.5 2.3
Adj. EBITDA (£m)(8.5)(10.0)(9.4)(7.7)
PBT (£m)(11.4)(12.0)(11.4)(9.7)
Net Income (£m)(10.8)(11.6)(11.1)(9.4)
EPS (p)(7.3)(4.5)(1.0)(0.5)
Cash (£m)5.3 2.8 1.8 1.0
Source: Trinity Delta Note: Adjusted numbers exclude share-based payments and exceptionals. FY25e includes £2m and FY26e includes £8m of cash inflows (as illustrative short-term debt) which could come from a variety of sources.
  • Focus on deals to complement existing efforts and maximise opportunities Executive Chairman Iain Ross is undertaking a review of the business, with an update on progress and plans expected in coming months. The focus is on maximising the broad commercial opportunities for the test portfolio through partnerships, collaborations and licensing deals with diagnostic/pharma companies, which are aimed at complementing the existing commercial efforts for CiRT and PSE. Costs will also continue to be managed to an appropriate base. We note that a new distribution agreement for CiRT and PSE has been executed in Romania.
  • Cash replenished for near-term execution FY24 revenues (to end September 2024) were £0.6m (FY23: £0.5m), with sales from the CiRT and PSE tests doubling to £0.4m (FY23: £0.2m); for more information on the most recent test volumes see our January 2025 Lighthouse. R&D increased slightly to £0.8m, staff costs were broadly flat at £5.5m (FY23: £5.4m), and G&A rose to £4.5m (FY23: £3.4m). The overall increase in costs reflects additional marketing spend and headcount, somewhat offset as no bonuses were awarded. The net loss was £11.6m (FY23: £10.8m). Cash at end September was £2.8m, which was boosted by the £7.35m (gross) January 2025 fundraise (issuing 1.47bn shares at 0.5p).
  • Reinstated OBD valuation of £159m Our forecasts and valuation reflect the £7.35m (gross) fundraise and FY24 financials. The main change is lower FY25e R&D, owing to reducing costs on PROWES given OBD plans to make an early submission for inclusion in key cancer guidelines. Our FY25e and FY26e forecasts include £2m and £8m, respectively, of cash inflows (as illustrative short-term debt) which could come from a variety of sources, including financing event(s) and deals. Our reinstated valuation is £159m/$199m (vs our last published £162m, reflecting a slightly slower near-term sales ramp but no change to future peak sales); this has been significantly diluted to 8p/share based on the enlarged share count.

Update

6 March 2025

Price0.50p
Market Cap£9.8m
Enterprise Value£7.0m
Shares in issue1,957.6m
12 month range0.45p-12.5p
Free float85.4%
Primary exchangeAIM London
Other exchangesN/A
SectorHealthcare
Company codesOBD
Corporate clientYes

Company description

Oxford BioDynamics (OBD) develops 3D genomic diagnostics using its proprietary EpiSwitch technology platform. Aiming to improve precision and clinical utility, the target applications are in oncology, autoimmune diseases, and neuro-degenerative disorders. Two tests, EpiSwitch CiRT (immuno-oncology response) and EpiSwitch PSE (prostate cancer) are being rolled out commercially.

Analysts

Franc Gregori
fgregori@trinitydelta.org
+44 (0) 20 3637 5041

Philippa Gardner
pgardner@trinitydelta.org
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042

Exhibit 1: Summary of financials
Source: Company, Trinity Delta  Note: Note: Adjusted numbers exclude share-based payments and exceptionals. FY25e includes £2m and FY26e includes £8m of cash inflows (as illustrative short-term debt) which could come from a variety of sources, including financing event(s) and deals.

 

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