Elunate (fruquintinib) secures China NRDL listing
Lighthouse | 29 November 2019
Trinity Delta view: Inclusion of fruquintinib in the China NRDL is an important milestone for Chi-Med. It is its first novel oncology drug commercially launched in China and securing NRDL reimbursement will significantly boost market penetration in 3L CRC. NRDL listing is associated with a c64% gross (we estimate 34% net) price discount; however, this is likely to be more than offset by higher volumes, driving both manufacturing revenue and royalties from sales growth.
Elunate is currently Chi-Med’s most valuable asset, contributing $9.47/ADS or £1.46/share to our company valuation. We forecast a $122m peak sales opportunity in China 3L CRC, and a potential $500m-$1bn China sales opportunity across multiple indications, with Chi-Med eligible for minimum royalties of 15%. Outside of China, Chi-Med retains full rights to the drug.
Our Chi-Med valuation is $5.14bn ($38.55/ADS) or £3.95bn (£5.93/share). We anticipate various clinical, regulatory, and commercial catalysts through 2020 which will unlock further value. For H120, these include interim analysis of the surufatinib China SANET-p Phase III study; China NDA filing for savolitinib in MET exon 14m/del 1L NSCLC; and initiation of US/Europe registration studies for surufatinib (neuroendocrine tumours) and fruquintinib (3L/4L CRC).
29 November 2019
|Price (US ADS) (UK share)||$24.30|
Hutchison China MediTech is a Hong Kong headquartered biopharma with an established Commercial Platform in China, and a diverse pipeline of first-in-class/best-in-class selective oral tyrosine kinase inhibitors (Innovation Platform). Its pipeline, discovered in-house, is in development for the China and global oncology markets.
+44 (0) 20 3637 5041
Mick Cooper PhD
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042
+44 (0) 20 3637 5043
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