Funded to achieve multiple value inflection points

Update | 15 February 2018

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BerGenBio is making excellent progress towards achieving its ambitious goals. All six Phase II trials with bemcentinib (BGB324) are on track to report data in 2018, with results from most of them expected at the ASCO meeting in June. The first efficacy data with bemcentinib in immuno-oncology settings should be reported there, from the three Phase II studies in combination with Merck’s pembrolizumab. BerGenBio continues to control its costs carefully and is funded to operate into FY19. Our valuation is maintained at NOK50.46/share.

Year-end: December 31201620172018E2019E
Sales (NOKm)
Adj. PBT (NOKm)(129.8)(182.2)(237.0)(241.7)
Net Income (NOKm)(129.8)(182.2)(237.0)(241.7)
Adj. EPS (NOK)(419.7)(4.0)(4.7)(4.8)
Cash (NOKm)161.8370.4130.941.4
EBITDA (NOKm)(131.4)(183.5)(236.4)(232.9)
Source: Trinity Delta Note: Adjusted numbers exclude exceptionals. FY19 estimates includes short-term debt of NOK150, which is indicative of the company’s funding requirement
  • All trials are recruiting well BerGenBio reports that all six Phase II studies with bemcentinib (see initiation dated 4 January 2018) are recruiting well, especially those with pembrolizumab. This confirms the clinical interest of targeting the Axl receptor for the treatment of cancer and bodes well for bemcentinib’s commercial potential. It also means that four of the Phase II trials should report final overall survival (OS) data this year.
  • First I-O efficacy data to be presented at ASCO Results from most, if not all, of the Phase II trials is expected to be published at the ASCO conference in June. The first efficacy data from the immuno-oncology studies, bemcentinib in combination with Merck’s pembrolizumab (Keytruda), is most keenly awaited. Preclinical data and increase in T-cell diversification in the Phase II study in acute myeloid leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndrome suggest that bemcentinib should work synergistically with pembrolizumab.
  • Funded to deliver data from six trials BerGenBio had a strong cash position of NOK370m at FY17. Its operating expenses rose by 40% to NOK184m, reflecting the increased number of clinical trials and patients being treated. We forecast that operating expenses will increase by 29% to NOK237m in FY18, and that the cash burn will rise by 42% to NOK239m to end the year with NOK131m in cash.
  • Valuation unchanged at NOK50.46/share Our valuation remains NOK2,519m ($296m) or NOK50.46/share, after making only minor changes to our estimates for the FY17 results. Our valuation is made up of a core valuation of NOK1,560m ($184m), or NOK31.25/share (based on the current development programme), and NOK959m ($113m) or NOK19.21/share to recognise the wider potential of bemcentinib in immuno-oncology. Its Axl antibody, BGB149, is due to enter the clinic in Q418, but this is not included in the valuation.


15 February 2018

Price (NOK)41.90
Market Cap (NOKm)2,092
Enterprise Value (NOKm)1,722
Shares in issue49.9m
12-month range (NOK)18.60-44.40
Free float57%
Primary exchangeOslo
Other exchangesN/A
Company CodeBGBIO
Corporate clientYes

Company description

BerGenBio is a clinical-stage, drug development company based in Bergen, Norway and Oxford, UK. It is developing innovative anti-cancer therapies that act on the promising Axl signalling pathway. The lead oncology compound, BGB324, is in a number of Phase II trials.


Mick Cooper PhD
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042

Lala Gregorek
+44 (0) 20 3637 5043

Exhibit 1: Summary of financials
Source: BerGenBio, Trinity Delta Note: Adjusted numbers exclude exceptionals. The short-term debt in FY19 is indicative of the company’s funding requirement


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