Manufacturing pause takes it toll on revenues
Update | 28 October 2022
Allergy Therapeutics has quantified the potential near-term revenue impact from the voluntary UK manufacturing pause. Whilst this is only expected to last around six weeks, FY23 revenues are expected to be 13-18% below current consensus expectations. This is unfortunately due to the interruption occurring during the peak production period, which is undoubtedly disappointing given management guidance of a return to near double-digit growth in FY23. This setback puts increasing pressure on the pipeline to deliver next year, with important readouts expected for both VLP Peanut and Grass MATA MPL; both are expected to initiate key clinical trials this year. Our valuation is lowered to £260.8m, or 38.4p/share, with the commercial business DCF reduced to £45.9m or 6.8p/share and our pipeline NPV unchanged.
|Year-end: June 30||2021||2022||2023E||2024E|
|Adj. PBT (£m)||2.5||(13.9)||(36.7)||(23.1)|
|Net Income (£m)||2.9||(13.8)||(37.1)||(24.0)|
28 October 2022
|Shares in issue||679.1m|
|12 month range||15.2-38.5p|
|Primary exchange||AIM London|
Allergy Therapeutics specialises in the diagnosis and treatment of allergy. The existing European business generates > £70m annual sales. Near-term R&D efforts are focused on the Pollinex Quattro platform, whilst in the medium-term the VLP platform is highly promising.
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